Downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the current prices. SHFE tin prices drop back slightly [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on July 2, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) opened higher in the night session and then oscillated and pulled back, finally closing near 268,200 yuan/mt, up 0.32% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) The Jinan Municipal Bureau of Commerce issued an announcement on the first round of automobile consumption subsidy activities in Jinan for the second half of 2025. From 0:00 on July 1 to 24:00 on July 31, individuals and enterprises (units) purchasing new non-commercial passenger vehicles from automakers participating in the activities in Jinan can apply for a maximum automobile consumption package of 8,500 yuan, with no restrictions on household registration or license plate registration areas. The total subsidy amount for this activity is 12 million yuan. (Bullish ★) (2) SAIC released its production and sales bulletin, showing that in June, the group sold 365,000 vehicles, up 21.6% YoY; from January to June, it sold 2.053 million vehicles in wholesale, up 12.4% YoY. Since the beginning of this year, SAIC has achieved "six consecutive months of YoY growth" in monthly sales, with cumulative terminal retail deliveries reaching 2.207 million vehicles. (Bullish ★) (3) The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released the operating conditions of the Internet and related services from January to May 2025. From January to May, Internet and related service enterprises above designated size (referred to as "Internet enterprises") completed Internet business revenue of 773.5 billion yuan, up 0.9% YoY. From January to May, Internet enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 69.2 billion yuan, down 2.2% YoY. (Bullish ★)

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: The overall supply of tin ore in major supply regions such as Yunnan has tightened, and some smelters may maintain production shutdowns for maintenance or slightly cut production in July. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand side: PV industry: After the installation rush ended, orders for PV tin strips in east China have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have dropped; Electronics industry: The electronics end-user market in south China has entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, with orders only maintained to meet immediate needs; Other sectors: Demand in sectors such as tinplate and chemicals has remained stable, with no unexpected growth observed.

Spot Market: Transactions in the spot market were sluggish yesterday. Most downstream enterprises adopted a wait-and-see attitude towards the current prices, with restocking mainly in the form of "small orders for immediate needs," and high prices suppressing the willingness to stock up.